17 August 2024

The looming possibility of an ILA strike on the US East Coast raises concerns about significant disruptions to container volumes and port operations, with potential long-term consequences for cargo clearance and supply chain stability.

The labor agreement between the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) is set to expire on September 30, 2024. If a new agreement isn't reached, the ILA has indicated its intention to strike starting October 1st.

This could have a significant impact on container volumes and port operations on the US East Coast.  

Estimated Impact on Container Volumes
Based on historical data, we anticipate US East Coast ports handling around 2.3 million TEUs in October, translating to 74,000 TEUs per day (36,000 imports and 38,000 exports). A strike would also disrupt the loading of 20,000 empty TEUs daily.

Backlog Clearance
Once a strike ends, the accumulated backlog of containers would need to be cleared in addition to the normal flow of cargo. The speed of this process depends on the excess capacity available at East Coast ports. Excess capacity refers to the ports' ability to handle volumes beyond their usual throughput.

One way to estimate excess capacity is to compare the maximum containers ever handled on the East Coast to the expected handling in October 2024. Our analysis suggests that the port system could potentially increase handling by 13% compared to the anticipated 2.3 million TEUs in October.

Figure 1 illustrates the time required to clear a backlog of 74,000 TEUs (resulting from one day of strike) at different levels of excess capacity. Assuming East Coast ports have 13% excess capacity, it would take approximately 6 days to clear the backlog from a single day of strike. With slightly more excess capacity, this could be reduced to 4-5 days.

Consequences of a Prolonged Strike
A one-week strike in early October would likely not be cleared until mid-November. In the event of a two-week strike, it's realistic to expect that normal port operations wouldn't resume until sometime in 2025.

Overall, a potential ILA strike could lead to substantial disruptions in container handling and port operations on the US East Coast. The duration of the strike and the available excess capacity at ports would significantly impact the time required to clear the resulting backlog.

Source: Sea-Intelligence