21 April 2023

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts that Vietnam is among the best performing economies in East Asia and the Pacific in 2023.

In Annual World Economic Outlook released in Washington recently, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts that Vietnam is among the best performing economies in East Asia and the Pacific in the coming this year with the Philippines and Cambodia.

Vietnam is forecast to be among the best performing economies in East Asia and the Pacific in 2023.

Accordingly, the Philippine economy is forecast to grow 6.0% - the fastest rate among the 15 members of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). Cambodia ranks second alongside Vietnam, with both economies expected to grow 5.8%.

Other predictions are 5.2% for China, 5.0% for Indonesia, 4.5% for Malaysia, 4.0% for Laos, 3.4% for Thailand, 3.3% for Brunei, 2 .6% for Myanmar, 1.6% for Australia, 1.5% for both South Korea and Singapore, 1.3% for Japan and 1.1% for New Zealand. Effective last year, RCEP The largest trade agreement in the world.

For the world economy as a whole, the IMF forecasts growth at 2.8% this year - 0.1 percentage point lower than the January forecast compared with the October forecast last year. On the surface, the global economy seems to have gradually recovered from the strong blows of the pandemic and the conflict in Ukraine. With China, confidence is also returning after reopening the economy. Supply chain disruptions are easing, while disruptions to energy and food markets caused by war are easing.

Simultaneously, the massive and synchronized monetary policy tightening by most central banks should begin to bear fruit, with inflation returning to targets. Beneath the surface, however, chaos is lurking, of which the recent banking turmoil is an example.

IMF economic adviser Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said downside risks dominate the outlook for the global economy. The world is now entering a “tough period” with historically lackluster growth, greater financial risks and persistent inflation.

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The IMF report said that in a severe downturn scenario, global GDP per capita could be about to fall - an outcome that is estimated to be around 15%.

The world is entering a perilous period in which economic growth remains low by historical standards and financial risks increase, while inflation remains unchanged definitively. The latest IMF projections also show an overall deterioration in medium-term growth forecasts.

The growth forecast for the next five years has been gradually tapering from 4.6% in 2011 to 3% in 2023. This partly reflects previously rapidly growing economies such as China or South Korea. growth is slowing down.

Source: congthuong.vn