03 May 2024

In the first 3 months of 2024, Vietnam exported 414.31 thousand tons of rubber, with a turnover of 607.35 million USD, increased 8.5% in volume and 14.3% in value over the same period last year.

The average export rubber price in the first 3 months of 2024 reached 1,466 USD/ton, increased 5.3% over the same period last year.

According to statistics from the General Department of Customs, Vietnam's rubber exports in March 2024 reached nearly 116.1 thousand tons, worth 180.36 million USD, an increase of 0.2% in volume and an increase of 10%. in value compared to March 2023.

In March 2024, the average export rubber price reached 1,554 USD/ton, increased 4.9% compared to February 2024 and 9.9% compared to March 2023. In the first 3 months of 2024, the average export rubber price reached 1,466 USD/ton, up to 5.3% over the same period in 2023.

CHINA IS STILL THE BIGGEST MARKET

In March 2024, China is still Vietnam's largest rubber export market. Accumulated in the first 3 months of 2024, Vietnam exported 287.85 thousand tons of rubber to China, worth 407.82 million USD, less than 1.6% in volume, but more than 2.7% in value compared to same period in 2023.

Notably, in March 2024, rubber exports to a number of markets such as India, Germany, Turkey, Russia, Sri Lanka, Belgium, the United States... grew strongly in both volume and value compared to March 2023.

The main reason for the recent spike in rubber prices stems from concerns about supply shortages in the market. Prolonged heavy rain combined with warnings of storms and floods in Thailand, the world's largest rubber supplier, puts the market at risk of supply shortage.

Moreover, the period from February to April is also the low harvest time in Southeast Asian countries. Combined with being affected by bad weather conditions, supply concerns become more serious, leading to price escalation.

Besides, analysts suggest that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have pushed up oil prices. While rubber prices always fluctuate in the same direction as oil prices, because artificial rubber is produced from oil, when artificial rubber prices increase, natural rubber prices will soar.

Positive signals from demand outside of China are also factors contributing to supporting prices in the first months of 2024. India - the world's leading rubber importer - has reduced import taxes on imported rubber for some electric vehicles produced by automakers committing to invest at least $500 million and begin producing dosmetically within 3 years.

This promises to be a new step for the automobile industry of the country of billions of people and comes with a more positive demand for rubber to manufacutre tire.

SUPPLY SHORTAGE, RUBBER EXPORT IS STILL FAVORABLE

It is forecasted that the rubber supply may continue to be in shortage in 2024 - 2025 by about 600 - 800 thousand tons per year.

This supply-demand gap comes from global natural rubber consumption that can maintain a growth rate of 4-6% per year, thanks to the recovery of the global automobile and tire manufacturing industry. , especially in the Chinese market. Tire production and export activities of Thailand and India also grew positively and are expected to continue to expand in 2024.

However, the global natural rubber supply is expected to only grow by an average of 1-3%/year in the period 2024-2025. Rubber planting area in Thailand and Indonesia continues to decrease due to tree diseases. rubber and the trend of converting to other industrial crops with higher economic efficiency.

Rubber harvest efficiency has also declined in recent years due to disease and extreme weather. In particular, 2024 is predicted to be a harsh year for rubber trees when transitioning between El Nino and La Nina phenomena, causing many fluctuations in the peak exploitation season in Southeast Asia.

Source: VNEconomy