03 August 2023

With the condition that the market recovers and the source of raw materials is stable, it is forecasted that in 2023, seafood exports will earn over 9 billion USD.

What is the scenario for seafood exports in the last months of 2023?

According to the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Processors (VASEP), it is estimated that by the end of July 2023, seafood exports will reach nearly 5 billion USD, down 25% over the same period in 2022. In particular, the deepest decrease was still pangasius (down 36%), shrimp and tuna decreased by 27% over the same period last year.

In July 2023 alone, seafood exports are estimated at 830 million USD, down 11% over the same period in 2022. In which, shrimp exports decreased by 10% to about 345 million USD, pangasius reached 150 million USD, down 20%, tuna decreased slightly by 3% and other fish decreased by 12% compared to July 2022.

From a market perspective, the recovery signal is most pronounced in the Chinese market, which in July 2023 will increase by 45% year-on-year, reaching nearly $180 million. Exports to other key markets are still 5-40% lower than in July 2022.

According to Ms. Le Hang – VASEP Communications Director, there are 3 factors that will determine the optimistic export scenario in the second half of the year.

Specifically, the economic performance of major markets is forecasted to be more positive in the second half of the year plus the fact that the import demand of markets such as the United States and China is tending to increase again, when inventories are decreasing and preparing orders for the year-end and New Year festivities.

The internal resources of enterprises and the seafood supply chain production community are promptly supported in terms of capital, production and business conditions to keep the supply of raw materials stable, ensuring the availability of goods when the market needs.  Export products have stable supply and reduced prices, competitive selling prices before other countries.

With that favorable scenario, seafood exports in the remaining 5 months of 2023 may reach over 4 billion USD, then the total export turnover for the whole year 2023 will reach over 9 billion USD, down 15-16% compared to 2022.

In particular, it is forecasted that shrimp will earn about 3.5-3.6 billion USD, down 16-18%. Pangasius reached 1.7 – 1.8 billion USD, down 28%. Exports of tuna and squid and octopus will decrease by about 14-15% to reach 870 million USD and 650 million USD, respectively. Marine fish exports are estimated at 1.9-2 billion USD, down slightly compared to 2022.

Key markets will undoubtedly still bring in less revenue than in 2022. In particular, exports to the United States and South Korea will be 24-25% lower than in 2022, exports to the EU will decrease by 18%; The Japanese market will be better thanks to the value of value-added goods and thanks to the processing and processing segment for this market, especially marine fish.

The Chinese market is still the biggest expectation for seafood enterprises today, after opening, trade is gradually returning to normal. Hopefully, in the second half of the year, China's economy is more stable, people's incomes and consumption are improved, the market adapts to the new context... At that time, seafood exports have a chance to recover with a prediction equivalent to the turnover of 2023 with about 1.8 billion USD for both China and Hong Kong (China).

In a less optimistic scenario, when the market has shown signs of recovery, demand increases again, but Vietnam's seafood products are still difficult to compete in price and supply with other countries such as Ecuador, India, Indonesia, Thailand ...

The problems of the industry have not been solved in the short term as well as in the long term: high production costs because of high input costs such as feed and breeding, declining profits, lack of capital to maintain investment in raising the next crops, farmers abandoning ponds, leading to lack of raw materials to meet orders in the second half of the year...

That scenario can lead to predictions, exports in the last five months of the year can only reach about 3.5-3.7 billion USD, so for the whole year 2023, exports may only bring in about 8.5-8.7 billion USD. In particular, the deepest decline is still in 2 categories of pangasius and shrimp. Seafood exports are likely to worsen if the results of inspections of the EU inspection team's anti-IUU fishing programme in October fall short of expectations to remove the yellow card.

Strive to reach the finish line of 10 billion USD.

Mr. Tran Dinh Luan – Director General of the Fisheries Department (Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development) – said that up to this time, aquaculture production is still growing. Some of these products are very well consumed, especially fish.

Regarding export targets, in the first 6 months of 2023, seafood exports will decrease by 27.4%; In the first 7 months of the year, this decline was 25.4% with export turnover reaching nearly 5 billion USD. Therefore, this figure of 9 billion seafood exports for the whole year 2023 is definitely reached. However, to reach the goal of 10 billion USD, more needs to be striven for. "We still keep the target of exporting seafood of 10 billion USD this year," Mr. Tran Dinh Luan shared.

For the fishery sector, Mr. Phung Duc Tien – Deputy Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development – said that the ministry has not adjusted this year's export target. "VASEP said there have been positive signals about the market both with shrimp and pangasius. Pangasius exports to the United States reach over 50% of production. However, the United States is squeezing prices. U.S. inventories and inventories have fallen, while demand has been unchanged. Therefore, we need to prepare for reserves so that when the situation comes, we can seize this opportunity. Shrimp export is similar", Mr. Phung Duc Tien shared.

In addition, according to Mr. Phung Duc Tien, currently the VND 15,000 billion credit package is being implemented, which will create conditions for businesses to reserve goods sources as well as to be able to seize market opportunities when the time comes. "With the direction of the Government, the State Bank, commercial banks lowered interest rates; This is also a contributing factor for us to store, process and export. Ensure efficiency for seafood processing enterprises", Mr. Phung Duc Tien said.

Source: congthuong.vn