Imports and exports decline

According to the report of the Ministry of Industry and Trade announced on April 3, the total import-export turnover of goods in March 2023 was estimated at 58.49 billion USD. This was up 18.6% compared to the previous month, and decreased 13% over the same period last year.

In the first quarter of 2023, there are 2 New Year holidays (solar and lunar new year), the number of working days is small, along with the decrease in export orders, so the total import-export turnover is estimated at 154.27 billion USD, down 13.3% over the same period last year (up 15% in the same period).

Specifically, in terms of commodity exports, although export turnover in March 2023 recovered, estimated at 29.57 billion USD, up 13.5% over the previous month but down 14.8% over the same period last year due to production difficulties and a decrease in export orders…

Generally, in the first quarter of 2023, export turnover of goods was estimated at 79.17 billion USD, down 11.9% over the same period (up 14.4% in the same period); in which the domestic business sector decreased more sharply (down 17.4%) than the FDI sector (down 10%). This shows the difficulties of domestic enterprises in restoring production and business and boosting exports. 

Specifically, in terms of exports of commodity groups, the export turnover of agricultural, forestry and fishery products in the first quarter of 2023 was estimated at 6.86 billion USD. This was down 7.5% over the same period last year, accounting for 8.7 % of total exports.

Rice exports were a highlight of the past.

The highlight in agricultural, forestry and fishery exports in March was that rice exports increased sharply both in volume and in export value. It is estimated that rice exports in March 2023 compared with the previous month increased by 68.3% in volume and 67.6% in turnover; over the same period last year, rice exports grew by 69.3% in volume and 82.3% in export turnover. 

Vegetables and fruits are also items with rapid export turnover increases. Mr. Dang Phuc Nguyen - Chairman of the Vietnam Fruit and Vegetable Association said that vegetables and fruits were a few items with positive growth at the beginning of the year. In which, exports to the Chinese market grew well, about 23% compared to last year. This was the main factor driving the vegetable industry's positive growth. China's withdrawal from the "Zero-Covid" policy has helped Vietnam's fruit and vegetable exports to this market regain growth momentum.

Besides, in 2022, we signed several important decrees, especially in July 2022, we approved a protocol with China on durian export; In November, we signed a protocol with China on exporting bananas, then sweet potatoes and bird's nests on the occasion of the Lunar New Year, the Chinese market for vegetables and fruits increased sharply. Then, in October, the US allowed pomelos export to this country. In November, New Zealand signed an agreement to open Vietnam's pomelo and lemon export market. This is a critical factor to help the export turnover of vegetables and fruits prosper.

Like agricultural products, due to the global economic slowdown, a decrease in total demand, and a significant decrease in demand from major export markets, the export value of manufacturing in the first quarter decreased significantly, estimated at $67.5 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 13.1%. Overall, compared to the first quarter of 2022, the export volume of most of the group's goods has decreased.

The other group is mineral fuels in the first quarter, which decreased by 3.1% compared to the same period in 2022. This is mainly due to coal exports (a decrease of 97.8%) and other ore and mineral exports (a decrease of 28.9%). The only highlight of the group's exports was a 17% year-on-year increase in crude oil exports.

Regarding the commodity export market in the first quarter of 2023, export volume to most of China's markets and major trading partners decreased in the first quarter of 2023. Vietnam's largest export market is the United States with 20.57 billion US dollars.

On the other hand, the expected import volume of goods in March 2023 is 28.92 billion US dollars, an increase of 24.4% compared to the previous month, but a year-on-year decrease of 11.1%. As of the first quarter of 2023, the import volume of goods is expected to be $75.1 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 14.7%.

With this development, Vietnam's trade balance surplused $650 million in March 2023. This brought the total trade surplus in the first quarter of 2023 to $4.07 billion (a trade surplus of $1.87 billion during the same period). Among them, the domestic economic sector has a deficit of 6.77 billion US dollars; the surplus of foreign investment (including crude oil) is 10.8 billion US dollars.

Seize the opportunity.

The Ministry of Industry and Trade forecasts that purchasing power will still recover slowly. Production will still be difficult due to order shortages. Access to capital, bank interest rates and input costs for raw materials remain high. In addition, some countries' economic policies continue to have a significant impact on export-dependent countries such as Vietnam. This affects the production and export of some commodities, such as electronics, textiles, footwear, and furniture in the coming time.

Promote trade promotion to increase export growth

However, in the midst of difficulties, there are still some encouraging signs. These include growth in some major economic regions such as China and the US is higher than forecast; Some emerging economies in Asia such as India and ASEAN have positive growth. Policies to stimulate demand for public investment and the support provided by the government are effective at restoring production activities. The number of new export orders increased for the first time in 3 months, although the industrial production index decreased, the trend increased gradually over the months; The import of raw materials and auxiliary materials shows signs of increasing... are the factors that predict the situation of production, import and export in the coming time will be more positive.

In particular, recently, the negotiation of the Vietnam - Israel Free Trade Agreement (VIFTA) was officially announced to end on the occasion of the working and working trip to Israel of the Minister of Industry and Trade Nguyen Hong Dien with the Minister of Industry and Trade. Economy and Industry Israel Nir Barkat April 2, 2023. Israel is one of Vietnam's leading trade, investment and labor cooperation partners in the region. Israel is currently the third largest export market, and the fifth largest trading partner of Vietnam in West Asia. It is considered a large and potential market in West Asia.

In 2022, Vietnam's total import-export turnover with Israel will reach 2.2 billion USD, up 17.9% over the same period in 2021. Of this, Vietnam's export turnover to Israel will total 785.7 million USD. And Vietnam's import turnover from Israel reached 1.4 billion USD. Minister of Industry and Trade Nguyen Hong Dien said that with a mutually complementary economic structure and two-way trade turnover is growing strongly. Vietnam and Israel will benefit when the two countries are not involved. Incentives and advantages of VIFTA are effectively utilized.

In the coming time, in order to remove difficulties for import and export, the Ministry of Industry and Trade will continue to organize monthly briefings between agencies of the Ministry, the system of the Vietnamese Trade Office in foreign countries and other countries. Localities, associations, businesses and relevant ministries and branches to promptly update businesses and associations on information, demand, and new regulations of the market. Promote import and export development through cross-border e-commerce activities.

Besides, continue to expand and diversify export markets; targeting new and potential markets such as India, Africa, the Middle East and Latin America, Eastern Europe, etc. To promote the effective exploitation of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs). Facilitating and enhancing digital transformation in the granting of preferential C/O certificates of origin, thereby supporting businesses to take advantage of FTA commitments; Focus on innovating and strengthening trade promotion activities. Promote logistics services, reducing costs and improving Vietnam's export competitiveness.

For key products, Mr. Dang Phuc Nguyen emphasized, China will still be the largest market for Vietnamese vegetables and fruits when each year this market consumes about 300 million tons of vegetables and fruits, of which they only import 7-8 million tons. Meanwhile, Vietnam's supply is very high. This is forecast to be a strategic market for Vietnamese fruit and vegetables in the coming time.

Particularly for seafood, Mr. Truong Dinh Hoe, General Secretary of the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP), shared that despite many difficulties, businesses are still in a state of development. Growth feeds the world. To help the seafood industry grow, businesses are trying to increase seafood products' value through increasing processing value.

Source: congthuong.vn